AJ Economic Consultancy
Rigorous economic advice and analysis for confident, evidence‑based decisions
What We Do
Economic Advice & Analysis
Independent, evidence‑based insight supported by rigorous economic research and analytical modelling, providing a comprehensive assessment of economic trends and drivers to inform high‑level decision‑making and policy development.
Cost - Benefit Analysis
Structured evaluation of economic, social, and financial impacts aligned with UK Green Book standards, providing clear evidence on the value, feasibility, and proportionality of proposed interventions.
Analytical & Quality Assurance
Rigorous review and validation of analytical models, assumptions, and evidence to ensure accuracy, robustness, and compliance with best‑practice standards, including the UK Green Book and Aqua Book guidance.
Evidence-Based Strategy
Actionable, evidence‑based strategic insight grounded in rigorous analysis, supporting government, public‑sector bodies, and organisations to shape effective policies and strategic choices.
Independent & Evidence-Driven
Independent, evidence‑based analysis grounded in rigorous economic methodology, ensuring decisions are supported by objective and transparent insight.
Government- Standard Methodology
Work aligned with the UK Green Book, Aqua Book, and best‑practice analytical guidance, providing confidence in the quality and robustness of every output.
Clear, Actionable Insight
Complex economic evidence translated into clear, practical recommendations that support leaders, policymakers, and organisations to make confident decisions.
High-Quality Assurance
Robust analytical assurance processes that validate assumptions, models, and evidence, ensuring accuracy, integrity, and methodological consistency.
Why Choose Us
Our Approach
Understand the Challenge
We begin by clarifying objectives, constraints, and the decision context to ensure the analysis is aligned with your strategic needs.
Gather and Analyse Evidence
We apply rigorous economic methods, modelling, and data analysis to generate robust, transparent insights.
Develop Clear Recommendations
We translate complex evidence into practical, actionable advice tailored to decision‑makers and policy leaders.
Assure Quality and Deliver
All outputs undergo structured analytical assurance to ensure accuracy, clarity, and compliance with best‑practice standards.
Articles
The Economic Impact of the US–Iran War and How AJ Economic Consultancy Helps Policymakers Respond
The US–Iran war has once again demonstrated how geopolitical conflict can reshape the global economy. While military outcomes dominate headlines, the economic consequences are equally significant, influencing energy markets, trade balances, and fiscal stability worldwide. For policymakers, the challenge lies in responding to immediate shocks while preparing for structural changes that will define the future. This article discusses some of the key impacts and how AJ Economic Consultancy could help governments and businesses to translate these complex dynamics into actionable, evidence‑based strategies.
Energy Markets and Inflationary Pressures
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one fifth of global oil passes, has become a flashpoint. Disruptions to shipping routes and heightened risk premiums have driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, fuelling inflation across advanced and developing economies alike. Rising energy costs ripple through transport, food, and manufacturing, placing pressure on households and businesses. Central banks face difficult trade‑offs between controlling inflation and sustaining growth, while governments must consider subsidies and fiscal adjustments to cushion the impact.
Trade Balances and Fiscal Stability
Beyond energy, the war has disrupted broader trade flows. Countries reliant on Middle Eastern imports face supply bottlenecks, while fiscal stability is threatened as governments divert resources to defence and emergency measures. Developing economies, already burdened by debt, are particularly vulnerable. For them, the war is not just a geopolitical event but a catalyst for financial strain that could undermine long‑term development goals. Advanced economies must also recalibrate supply chains and investment strategies to manage structural risks.
Geoeconomic Realignment
The conflict has accelerated a geoeconomic realignment. Gulf states are deepening reliance on US security guarantees, while Asian economies explore diversification strategies to reduce exposure to Middle Eastern energy. Markets now price geopolitical risk more aggressively, meaning uncertainty itself has become a driver of volatility. Policymakers must prepare not only for immediate disruptions but also for enduring changes in global trade and finance.
How AJ Economic Consultancy Adds Value
At AJ Economic Consultancy, we provide clarity in this complex environment. Our services include:
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Scenario modelling: Quantifying the impact of energy disruptions and inflationary pressures on national economies.
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Cost‑benefit analysis: Evaluating policy options to ensure interventions deliver maximum value.
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Independent assurance: Verifying policy frameworks against government‑grade standards.
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Strategic advisory: Guiding leaders on diversification, resilience, and structural reforms.
By combining technical expertise with strategic insight, we help decision‑makers navigate uncertainty and design policies that are both credible and resilient.
Ready to Discuss Your Project?
The US–Iran war is a stark reminder that conflict can reshape economies as profoundly as any financial crisis. Energy markets, trade balances, and fiscal stability are all vulnerable to disruption, while geoeconomic realignment creates new risks and opportunities. AJ Economic Consultancy equips leaders with the tools to respond confidently, ensuring that policy decisions are not just reactive but strategically aligned with long‑term national and global interests
We provide rigorous, evidence‑based economic insight to support confident decision‑making.
Address
27 Old Gloucester Street, London, England, WC1N 3AX
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AJ Economic Consultancy Limited provides rigorous, evidence‑based economic advisory services, specialising in market forecasting, cost‑benefit analysis, and data‑driven strategy. Our expertise in impact assessments, feasibility studies, and bespoke economic research supports organisations in making confident, analytically robust decisions.